* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/08/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 74 75 78 68 53 37 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 74 75 78 68 53 37 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 67 68 66 62 55 45 36 28 22 18 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 26 19 22 25 37 57 71 65 64 48 43 SHEAR DIR 251 247 253 250 246 251 242 235 238 245 255 274 298 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.9 26.7 25.2 24.4 24.4 25.0 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 149 142 136 121 105 97 97 102 103 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 143 138 131 124 106 91 83 83 87 87 88 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -54.0 -53.4 -54.3 -55.5 -56.4 -57.4 -57.7 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 6 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 71 66 69 63 61 56 39 20 11 15 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 16 15 15 16 22 21 16 12 9 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 56 88 91 112 113 113 104 73 12 -26 -85 200 MB DIV 105 42 38 91 103 111 137 31 -6 -47 -45 -60 -47 LAND (KM) 244 172 104 98 157 402 224 146 51 38 48 70 69 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.9 22.8 25.2 27.5 29.1 30.0 30.0 29.3 29.1 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 84.8 85.1 85.8 86.4 87.6 87.9 87.5 86.8 86.1 85.6 85.1 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 12 13 10 7 4 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 112 111 105 93 47 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -15. -23. -30. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 6. 2. -2. -4. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 8. -7. -23. -34. -46. -52. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY