* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/08/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 86 86 86 85 78 65 46 30 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 85 86 86 86 85 78 65 46 30 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 88 87 84 77 67 56 45 36 28 22 17 SHEAR (KT) 20 25 20 23 22 36 49 57 68 63 64 59 46 SHEAR DIR 240 241 253 258 251 239 236 232 236 250 266 274 280 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.1 25.0 24.7 25.2 26.2 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 146 140 138 131 114 103 99 104 113 116 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 135 130 126 117 99 88 85 89 96 97 100 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.4 -55.4 -56.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.5 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 73 69 68 66 62 56 49 28 17 11 13 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 14 15 20 22 19 13 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 58 79 91 88 124 104 104 102 59 0 -29 -106 200 MB DIV 48 41 86 97 112 140 101 31 -20 -43 -55 -68 -57 LAND (KM) 188 114 65 133 247 336 153 124 86 88 197 247 282 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.7 23.8 26.2 28.2 29.3 29.7 29.1 28.0 27.5 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.8 86.3 87.0 87.6 88.3 88.1 87.4 86.5 86.0 86.0 85.8 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 13 12 11 8 5 3 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 106 97 39 10 13 16 3 0 0 0 2 7 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -21. -26. -32. -38. -43. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. -2. -15. -34. -50. -63. -71. -77. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY