* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 85 87 87 85 73 57 41 32 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 84 85 87 87 85 73 57 41 32 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 87 86 84 75 63 51 39 29 21 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 20 21 21 26 41 61 81 86 78 65 50 41 SHEAR DIR 236 249 257 251 241 239 238 237 237 245 247 258 269 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.9 26.7 25.6 24.9 24.9 25.8 27.1 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 140 138 136 120 108 102 102 111 124 130 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 130 129 124 105 94 88 88 96 108 111 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.4 -55.1 -55.7 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 70 69 67 66 59 53 40 23 11 10 8 10 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 16 18 24 24 22 23 30 26 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR 65 83 90 92 110 116 110 130 125 107 71 32 16 200 MB DIV 45 74 110 106 129 131 32 1 -28 -64 -69 -67 -71 LAND (KM) 114 63 111 255 400 207 187 93 25 131 69 81 104 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.9 25.2 27.5 28.7 29.4 29.5 28.6 26.9 25.9 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.4 86.9 87.4 87.9 88.2 87.4 86.3 85.2 84.2 83.2 82.6 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 13 9 6 5 5 8 8 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 97 29 10 11 5 10 0 0 0 0 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -17. -25. -34. -43. -50. -55. -58. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 6. 5. 6. 11. 8. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. -7. -23. -39. -48. -62. -66. -73. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY