* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 85 83 75 59 40 34 28 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 85 83 75 53 38 31 28 24 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 84 81 77 67 54 36 30 28 26 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 24 30 25 27 28 54 79 89 78 64 50 27 32 SHEAR DIR 254 264 260 256 244 240 235 236 238 246 239 271 301 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.1 25.1 24.1 24.0 24.9 25.3 25.9 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 138 136 126 106 97 97 104 106 111 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 128 125 113 93 85 85 90 92 95 99 99 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -54.1 -54.9 -56.0 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.1 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 63 58 60 51 33 18 13 16 22 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 19 20 23 25 22 31 33 28 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 76 89 86 119 133 104 109 131 154 147 156 148 143 200 MB DIV 88 96 111 134 141 95 36 -11 -30 -39 -55 -69 -81 LAND (KM) 89 162 292 411 249 116 -4 -81 -61 -12 126 263 303 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 23.0 24.2 25.6 27.0 29.2 30.5 30.8 30.2 29.9 30.2 30.4 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.8 87.5 88.0 88.4 88.0 86.9 85.2 83.2 81.4 80.0 78.6 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 13 9 7 8 8 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 73 25 9 8 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -21. -26. -31. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -36. -46. -54. -56. -58. -56. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 11. 13. 9. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -2. -10. -26. -45. -51. -57. -66. -69. -71. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY