* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/09/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 86 81 67 48 34 23 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 86 81 67 41 31 28 27 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 89 84 78 63 40 31 28 28 27 25 25 SHEAR (KT) 31 27 24 31 41 60 76 66 72 51 44 34 47 SHEAR DIR 260 263 253 238 234 236 234 239 247 258 262 300 325 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.0 24.2 23.5 23.5 24.2 25.8 26.7 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 128 115 99 94 94 98 111 119 119 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 123 116 102 87 82 82 86 95 101 101 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -54.6 -55.6 -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 -56.5 -56.3 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 62 64 60 50 33 20 16 21 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 19 22 22 25 22 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 76 106 119 91 72 83 121 168 183 181 140 145 200 MB DIV 105 100 140 145 119 97 33 -3 -32 -19 -42 -61 -81 LAND (KM) 174 304 438 301 179 16 -119 -170 -19 140 283 404 478 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.3 25.5 26.9 28.3 30.3 31.3 31.5 31.0 30.4 30.1 30.0 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.9 87.3 87.5 87.7 87.0 85.4 83.5 81.7 79.9 78.3 76.8 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 0 0 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 14 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -2. -9. -19. -28. -35. -39. -41. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -19. -31. -42. -47. -50. -50. -51. -50. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -9. -23. -42. -56. -67. -72. -75. -76. -79. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY