* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/09/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 73 66 51 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 73 66 46 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 69 63 45 33 29 27 27 25 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 28 30 31 45 56 72 76 62 61 46 43 49 61 SHEAR DIR 250 251 243 238 237 235 237 249 260 264 293 320 324 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.0 24.7 23.9 23.8 24.4 25.1 26.4 26.8 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 126 115 103 96 95 100 105 116 120 118 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 122 114 102 90 83 83 87 91 99 102 100 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 -55.4 -56.6 -57.2 -57.1 -56.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 62 60 52 38 23 15 12 17 22 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 19 21 22 21 22 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 110 118 88 67 77 102 145 163 152 143 118 90 200 MB DIV 116 148 144 123 92 53 0 -29 -52 -65 -68 -87 -121 LAND (KM) 314 400 251 151 89 -48 -105 -91 3 156 294 394 411 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.6 30.9 31.1 30.7 30.2 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.8 88.1 88.0 87.9 86.9 85.3 83.4 81.3 79.6 78.1 76.8 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 10 7 7 9 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 16 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -17. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -13. -19. -32. -43. -48. -52. -52. -53. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -7. -14. -29. -46. -58. -65. -68. -70. -73. -79. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY