* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 56 51 45 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 56 51 45 33 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 57 51 46 42 32 28 27 29 27 27 26 DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 34 43 54 57 65 63 59 42 44 46 59 N/A SHEAR DIR 243 236 233 233 229 233 241 248 260 270 309 319 N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.5 25.0 23.8 22.9 22.6 23.2 23.2 23.5 25.0 25.5 25.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 106 97 90 88 92 92 93 104 108 108 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 108 94 86 80 78 81 81 82 89 92 93 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.9 -55.9 -56.3 -57.5 -58.1 -57.5 -57.2 -56.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 58 57 50 41 25 22 17 23 24 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 23 25 24 23 20 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 105 86 63 64 80 109 139 137 119 104 93 N/A 200 MB DIV 133 157 137 109 96 44 9 -35 -39 -55 -59 -108 N/A LAND (KM) 382 247 132 111 2 -62 -78 -95 48 158 198 218 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.4 30.4 31.0 30.8 31.0 31.3 31.5 32.2 32.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.2 88.2 87.9 87.5 86.0 84.2 82.5 80.8 79.2 77.6 75.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -14. -23. -31. -37. -41. -42. -44. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -14. -20. -31. -43. -53. -59. -58. -59. -61. -64. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY