* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 48 43 38 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 48 43 35 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 47 42 34 29 28 27 28 26 25 24 DIS SHEAR (KT) 32 44 51 58 58 59 55 55 41 46 41 58 N/A SHEAR DIR 229 224 226 228 228 232 245 261 263 284 315 328 N/A SST (C) 26.0 24.8 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.6 24.1 25.1 26.4 26.9 26.8 26.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 104 93 90 87 89 98 105 116 121 120 116 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 92 83 80 77 79 87 91 99 102 101 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -55.0 -55.4 -56.8 -56.6 -57.2 -57.9 -57.3 -57.6 -57.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 58 55 46 38 32 32 32 33 26 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 22 24 25 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 82 64 77 82 103 135 137 129 86 52 22 N/A 200 MB DIV 159 149 109 116 106 51 16 -17 1 -51 -69 -80 N/A LAND (KM) 198 102 75 11 -73 -100 -39 -23 106 209 324 427 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.4 31.1 31.1 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.6 30.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.5 88.5 87.9 87.3 85.4 83.3 81.4 79.9 78.6 77.5 76.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 9 7 9 10 8 6 5 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 17 13 8 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 16 CX,CY: -3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -28. -35. -39. -42. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -32. -43. -49. -50. -52. -52. -55. -59. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY