* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 44 38 29 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 41 37 31 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 51 41 37 31 28 27 28 25 23 21 DIS SHEAR (KT) 47 50 58 59 67 53 68 54 57 25 51 54 N/A SHEAR DIR 223 228 226 223 228 240 247 249 248 275 328 325 N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.5 22.9 22.9 22.8 23.4 25.2 26.4 27.2 27.5 27.3 26.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 94 90 89 89 94 107 116 124 127 125 121 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 82 79 78 79 83 94 100 106 107 106 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -56.0 -56.1 -56.2 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -56.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 55 45 36 27 23 22 20 18 15 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 26 25 22 20 19 21 20 18 21 17 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 60 81 100 107 152 193 204 183 139 106 78 N/A 200 MB DIV 135 111 110 99 60 9 -12 -8 -35 -51 -68 -105 N/A LAND (KM) 80 89 11 -6 -23 -40 -17 -29 75 164 253 337 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.6 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.3 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.3 29.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.2 87.8 87.2 86.5 84.7 82.6 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.9 77.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 6 7 9 10 7 5 4 4 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 17 25 21 15 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -15. -23. -31. -39. -46. -46. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -1. -2. -4. -2. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -31. -40. -44. -49. -51. -52. -61. -66. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 56.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/10/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY