* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 36 33 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 36 33 31 28 27 30 28 28 28 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 53 59 59 65 58 56 53 45 37 36 63 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 225 222 222 237 241 245 250 270 308 326 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.8 22.5 22.7 22.7 23.3 23.7 23.8 25.0 25.7 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 90 88 89 89 92 94 95 103 110 112 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 80 78 78 78 81 83 83 89 94 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.2 -55.1 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -56.4 -56.8 -56.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 53 44 39 32 28 31 28 33 28 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 24 23 21 18 19 16 18 20 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 80 106 118 132 170 193 203 171 173 171 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 116 118 80 67 2 -12 29 -20 -37 -65 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 27 -30 -43 -48 -56 -118 22 156 205 238 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.6 30.5 30.7 30.8 31.4 32.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 88.3 87.7 86.9 86.1 84.4 82.7 81.2 79.8 78.4 76.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -23. -31. -35. -37. -41. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -28. -36. -41. -43. -42. -49. -49. -53. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/10/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY