* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 11/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 45 50 55 58 56 49 37 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 45 50 55 58 56 49 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 46 46 46 45 42 37 SHEAR (KT) 29 5 1 6 14 14 27 50 33 29 61 70 85 SHEAR DIR 234 237 214 17 10 350 285 268 238 257 303 299 301 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.1 24.0 21.6 15.5 14.1 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 129 126 121 115 107 100 86 68 63 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 117 114 106 100 95 88 77 64 59 65 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -55.7 -56.8 -58.6 -59.6 -59.5 -58.2 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 50 50 48 47 63 67 68 53 50 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 67 54 36 23 49 137 92 57 20 39 52 200 MB DIV -46 -53 -22 -9 5 21 51 141 103 27 2 -4 -35 LAND (KM) 853 835 831 850 894 968 996 804 590 319 56 6 122 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.9 26.5 28.0 29.5 31.8 34.7 37.0 38.3 38.7 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 61.4 62.4 63.7 65.0 67.0 67.9 68.4 69.5 71.9 74.4 75.1 73.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 10 10 13 15 13 7 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 28 22 20 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 0. -2. -6. -12. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 20. 25. 28. 26. 19. 7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 11/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 11/10/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY