* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/10/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 28 28 27 27 27 29 26 23 22 21 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 58 66 63 57 53 64 42 40 38 50 62 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 221 222 232 240 242 241 253 285 320 328 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.8 23.1 24.2 25.1 26.3 26.7 26.6 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 89 88 90 92 99 105 115 119 118 115 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 78 78 79 81 87 90 98 100 100 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.6 -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -56.9 -56.9 -56.6 -56.6 -56.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 44 46 43 41 38 37 32 26 22 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 20 18 17 17 16 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 97 111 128 145 170 176 179 153 142 100 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 144 90 69 61 10 1 43 -3 -43 -61 -104 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 -24 -58 -57 -87 -72 16 148 260 370 382 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.7 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.0 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.3 31.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.4 86.7 85.8 84.9 82.8 81.0 79.6 78.3 77.2 76.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 14 10 6 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -11. -22. -29. -35. -41. -44. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -9. -6. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -17. -21. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. -33. -37. -39. -43. -42. -45. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/10/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 59.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/10/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY