* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 11/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 39 46 54 59 55 52 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 39 46 54 59 55 52 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 37 38 38 39 39 38 37 SHEAR (KT) 2 11 15 13 20 30 47 35 46 65 58 46 54 SHEAR DIR 106 36 44 12 342 273 248 268 262 259 277 270 272 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.9 24.6 23.3 22.6 22.3 21.8 18.9 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 122 120 114 104 95 90 87 85 76 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 110 107 105 101 93 85 79 75 74 69 63 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -55.9 -57.2 -59.6 -60.6 -61.5 -60.7 -61.6 -60.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 46 45 46 51 60 73 69 58 57 50 55 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 12 15 18 19 13 12 9 13 850 MB ENV VOR 54 38 37 32 32 88 82 31 -13 -66 -84 -112 -71 200 MB DIV -21 6 -8 11 49 51 64 115 130 65 26 36 18 LAND (KM) 745 807 835 917 1002 1177 1238 1041 925 852 747 576 359 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.3 28.1 30.0 32.3 34.9 37.1 38.2 39.4 41.3 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.5 66.2 66.3 66.3 65.1 62.9 60.7 58.5 57.0 56.6 56.5 56.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 9 9 13 15 15 11 7 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 16 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 6. 2. -2. -8. -14. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 24. 29. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. -2. -3. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 16. 24. 29. 25. 22. 19. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 11/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 11/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY