* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 11/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 40 46 56 58 55 53 50 52 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 40 46 56 58 55 53 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 38 40 40 38 38 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 13 21 34 39 42 66 60 66 55 41 SHEAR DIR 27 41 9 335 293 260 256 261 252 268 265 260 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.1 23.7 23.0 22.3 21.5 18.3 12.1 7.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 121 118 116 108 98 93 87 83 74 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 106 103 102 96 87 81 75 73 68 64 64 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.2 -56.8 -58.4 -60.3 -61.8 -61.3 -61.4 -61.0 -59.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 48 54 70 70 61 56 55 57 58 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 11 12 17 16 14 14 13 19 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 31 28 36 69 32 -20 -50 -38 -75 -74 13 200 MB DIV 10 -7 -2 44 66 87 116 129 86 37 24 44 105 LAND (KM) 827 883 947 1049 1151 1164 1055 850 769 644 439 181 69 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.5 29.4 31.7 34.4 37.0 38.5 39.7 41.4 43.6 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.0 66.4 66.2 65.9 64.2 62.0 60.2 58.8 58.7 59.7 60.7 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 12 15 15 12 7 8 10 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 2. -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 26. 28. 25. 24. 20. 22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 11/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 11/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY