* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902010 02/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 39 41 40 36 32 33 33 32 30 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 39 41 40 36 32 33 33 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 21 20 19 18 16 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 16 26 34 39 39 24 26 32 34 34 SHEAR DIR 180 176 217 215 225 215 207 190 212 221 231 239 246 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 150 149 151 150 148 145 146 146 144 141 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -51.1 -51.3 -49.9 -49.9 -50.8 -49.8 -51.1 -50.0 -51.7 -50.0 -50.9 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 85 76 70 62 56 53 54 56 57 56 52 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 107 126 123 134 147 122 135 144 154 146 154 123 200 MB DIV 145 153 145 141 109 85 127 112 153 92 48 8 -2 LAND (KM) 2134 2040 1947 1892 1836 1783 1765 1743 1677 1572 1482 1416 1369 LAT (DEG N) 2.4 3.4 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.0 4.3 3.9 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.8 7.5 LONG(DEG W) 165.6 165.6 165.5 165.2 164.9 163.8 162.0 160.3 159.1 158.8 159.1 159.7 160.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 10 7 5 4 8 9 7 5 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 156 161 151 145 138 144 136 129 121 105 90 78 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 15. 12. 14. 14. 12. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 15. 11. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902010 INVEST 02/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 150.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902010 INVEST 02/17/10 06 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART