* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 47 44 48 54 52 45 48 54 52 53 34 24 12 SHEAR DIR 278 271 268 275 284 268 271 265 267 253 250 235 286 SST (C) 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.4 25.0 25.4 24.8 24.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 93 94 94 93 95 98 102 108 106 103 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 79 80 81 81 81 83 85 89 97 98 94 81 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -52.7 -52.4 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 54 48 44 46 45 40 33 28 32 36 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 12 14 15 17 19 19 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -12 2 14 19 25 32 49 56 51 40 64 100 81 200 MB DIV 23 24 23 5 29 28 19 -21 -36 -30 -19 18 6 LAND (KM) 772 767 762 732 702 643 575 524 458 402 633 941 996 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.5 25.5 28.1 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.4 72.4 72.7 73.0 73.6 74.3 74.9 75.4 74.6 71.4 68.7 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 9 16 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. -4. -17. -28. -37. -41. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -22. -30. -32. -32. -31. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/21/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART