* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 53 60 59 60 51 48 46 50 44 38 28 29 5 SHEAR DIR 274 273 281 282 272 269 267 267 262 267 241 247 253 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.9 25.5 25.0 22.7 20.6 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 103 103 103 105 107 111 111 107 92 82 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 89 89 88 91 93 99 102 98 84 75 73 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 54 54 51 49 50 45 43 43 44 43 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 17 19 33 55 71 64 93 136 124 78 75 200 MB DIV 47 58 18 27 26 15 6 0 -9 32 -6 -35 -12 LAND (KM) 532 509 485 468 450 417 381 377 525 823 1041 956 901 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.3 24.5 26.9 29.9 32.7 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 72.9 72.9 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.2 72.5 70.4 68.0 66.9 66.1 65.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 7 14 15 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 11. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -10. -24. -33. -40. -41. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 1. -5. -14. -25. -33. -38. -37. -34. -32. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 56.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/21/10 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART