* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 62 59 58 49 48 44 51 47 51 39 33 23 30 SHEAR DIR 276 281 279 269 262 273 266 267 260 260 244 243 237 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.0 25.6 23.8 21.1 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 103 104 105 108 111 115 115 113 100 86 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 89 90 91 94 97 103 106 105 93 79 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 58 54 55 52 52 53 49 47 44 46 46 47 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 11 21 31 32 55 54 61 95 138 120 65 92 200 MB DIV 45 9 17 5 14 -10 -17 -21 -21 1 20 -1 5 LAND (KM) 493 471 449 430 410 357 304 304 402 673 1095 1273 1236 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.7 23.1 22.7 23.4 25.5 28.7 31.8 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 73.4 73.4 73.5 73.6 73.7 73.6 72.9 70.6 68.0 65.5 62.9 59.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 7 13 17 20 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -11. -24. -34. -42. -44. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -21. -32. -40. -45. -44. -41. -39. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/22/10 00 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART