* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 31 32 31 30 29 29 31 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 31 32 31 30 29 29 31 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 24 22 21 21 20 21 23 26 32 SHEAR (KT) 55 34 31 37 30 34 23 33 27 15 1 4 11 SHEAR DIR 292 289 266 262 256 228 228 211 241 217 213 137 125 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.5 24.6 23.1 21.7 21.6 22.7 23.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 117 115 113 109 102 92 85 84 88 92 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 103 101 100 96 90 82 76 75 77 79 80 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.9 -55.2 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 68 64 64 68 63 62 53 53 44 44 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 52 66 87 100 104 101 102 77 77 73 73 200 MB DIV 17 61 67 56 55 74 77 75 37 20 9 -17 -22 LAND (KM) 306 359 414 474 533 694 894 946 750 585 440 323 269 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.2 25.7 27.6 29.6 31.4 32.8 33.7 33.9 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 68.9 68.5 68.3 68.1 68.0 68.2 68.5 69.4 70.4 71.6 72.9 74.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 7 8 10 10 9 8 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -15. -13. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/22/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART