* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 34 33 31 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 34 33 31 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 25 23 21 20 19 20 21 24 29 SHEAR (KT) 37 40 38 32 30 35 32 38 29 22 10 9 10 SHEAR DIR 274 260 256 241 227 235 234 248 230 250 256 285 279 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.2 24.2 22.8 21.6 21.4 21.6 21.4 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 114 112 111 106 99 90 84 82 81 83 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 100 100 99 98 94 87 80 75 72 70 74 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -54.1 -55.6 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 63 62 57 54 47 47 48 49 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 68 95 121 106 141 114 93 69 86 122 107 200 MB DIV 53 64 61 46 83 56 79 28 32 -5 -17 0 -21 LAND (KM) 367 410 453 519 584 749 955 895 743 640 593 649 921 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.2 24.8 26.3 28.2 29.9 31.5 32.7 33.3 33.2 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 68.8 68.6 68.6 68.5 68.4 68.5 68.9 69.4 69.8 70.0 69.4 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 7 5 2 7 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -8. -13. -16. -15. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. 2. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/22/10 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART