* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 33 32 32 31 30 31 30 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 33 32 32 31 30 31 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 21 23 26 30 32 SHEAR (KT) 32 29 29 36 28 25 23 15 5 13 8 37 37 SHEAR DIR 253 243 232 241 246 241 230 245 321 279 258 250 253 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.0 22.4 21.6 22.7 23.1 22.9 22.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 108 105 105 104 103 98 89 85 88 88 90 86 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 91 91 91 91 87 80 76 76 75 78 77 79 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.7 -54.9 -55.8 -55.3 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 59 54 52 50 44 44 41 43 42 40 31 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 15 14 16 18 19 18 18 16 15 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 83 108 116 129 150 144 127 89 87 92 70 54 43 200 MB DIV 36 80 73 82 34 46 22 8 6 -5 -27 -11 -5 LAND (KM) 529 568 607 669 730 956 801 592 432 380 425 584 800 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.8 26.3 28.3 30.3 32.3 33.7 33.9 33.0 31.6 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.0 70.0 69.9 69.8 69.4 69.8 70.7 71.7 72.2 72.3 71.5 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 5 6 8 10 10 9 5 2 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. 1. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/23/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART