* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 41 39 37 38 39 36 31 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 39 41 39 37 38 39 36 31 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 31 30 30 32 35 39 43 43 SHEAR (KT) 29 31 35 26 21 22 19 13 7 14 16 39 47 SHEAR DIR 241 225 238 231 230 244 249 257 270 301 261 242 238 SST (C) 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.4 23.1 21.8 22.2 22.9 23.2 22.7 22.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 104 103 100 92 85 86 88 89 88 87 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 90 91 91 89 82 76 75 75 76 77 78 81 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -53.9 -55.2 -55.7 -55.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 53 50 48 44 43 44 43 46 44 41 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 18 20 20 20 17 14 13 14 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 102 113 122 138 148 131 104 72 66 98 57 48 45 200 MB DIV 81 85 88 51 42 31 22 19 10 -6 -12 2 7 LAND (KM) 610 654 698 788 877 883 684 511 412 396 469 623 852 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.8 27.6 29.5 31.3 32.6 33.2 33.0 32.1 30.9 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.5 70.4 71.5 72.3 72.7 72.6 71.7 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 9 9 9 6 3 3 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 9. 7. 8. 9. 6. 1. -4. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/23/10 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART