* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 40 36 35 36 34 29 25 18 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 40 36 35 36 34 29 25 18 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 36 35 33 32 31 33 36 39 40 38 SHEAR (KT) 35 33 29 26 28 23 24 14 12 15 34 40 53 SHEAR DIR 226 241 234 227 237 252 251 249 263 277 245 243 247 SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.5 22.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.1 22.9 22.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 100 97 93 88 86 87 88 89 88 88 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 89 88 86 82 78 76 75 76 77 76 77 78 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.6 -54.7 -55.8 -55.0 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 5 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 52 48 44 40 44 43 44 41 43 36 34 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 20 20 21 17 14 13 13 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 100 103 127 137 120 123 87 88 55 63 25 31 25 200 MB DIV 93 80 61 35 44 22 12 9 0 -9 -32 -11 -6 LAND (KM) 723 782 840 922 899 754 592 469 419 413 458 515 645 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.1 28.8 30.1 31.4 32.4 32.6 32.2 31.4 30.8 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 69.7 69.9 70.0 70.1 70.7 71.6 72.3 72.8 73.3 73.7 73.7 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 7 6 4 2 3 4 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. 0. 1. -1. -6. -10. -17. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/24/10 00 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART