* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 32 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 32 30 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 34 37 40 42 43 42 SHEAR (KT) 26 21 23 25 19 16 16 14 16 22 32 43 49 SHEAR DIR 238 241 234 252 254 250 255 261 268 270 278 265 276 SST (C) 24.8 24.6 24.3 23.8 23.3 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.3 23.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 99 96 93 91 93 95 96 96 97 96 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 87 84 82 80 80 80 81 80 82 85 81 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.5 -55.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 47 41 45 47 43 45 45 44 41 46 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 20 18 16 14 13 11 11 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 117 126 114 117 112 69 64 31 38 9 28 43 69 200 MB DIV 59 24 45 55 10 39 8 -3 -2 -38 -1 -9 -6 LAND (KM) 806 888 919 833 748 564 441 362 335 329 358 461 692 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.3 30.0 31.4 32.2 32.6 32.4 32.2 31.9 31.7 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.1 70.2 70.6 70.9 72.0 72.9 73.6 74.3 74.8 74.8 73.2 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 3 1 4 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -9. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/24/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART