* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 37 35 36 35 32 27 23 18 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 37 35 36 35 32 27 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 41 40 39 38 39 41 44 44 43 40 SHEAR (KT) 23 23 23 18 20 20 13 14 19 27 37 44 47 SHEAR DIR 235 229 245 254 245 260 257 282 244 241 240 270 255 SST (C) 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.4 23.1 23.2 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.1 23.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 95 93 91 91 92 92 92 91 92 95 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 84 82 80 79 78 78 78 79 81 86 85 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 45 40 43 45 47 44 48 45 40 40 35 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 17 15 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 114 110 110 98 87 67 43 64 39 20 -11 16 39 200 MB DIV 18 35 43 12 28 20 -4 -1 -3 -21 -23 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 902 892 826 749 673 520 433 411 456 525 645 864 1197 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.6 29.3 30.0 30.6 31.8 32.6 32.6 32.0 31.3 30.7 30.4 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 70.5 70.6 71.0 71.3 72.2 72.6 72.9 72.9 72.7 71.6 68.8 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 3 4 9 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/24/10 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART