* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 36 38 39 38 36 33 29 24 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 36 38 39 38 36 33 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 39 39 40 41 45 50 53 51 47 40 SHEAR (KT) 22 17 20 18 13 13 9 19 25 38 42 55 55 SHEAR DIR 246 252 249 271 270 255 275 249 257 264 262 254 255 SST (C) 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.8 25.0 24.4 23.6 23.4 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 93 93 93 94 95 97 97 101 102 100 97 97 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 81 82 82 82 82 85 87 87 87 89 84 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -55.0 -56.1 -55.9 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 5 4 8 6 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 44 44 43 45 48 45 45 43 48 47 48 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 12 11 13 10 12 9 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 87 84 57 62 65 42 35 24 41 66 64 37 -4 200 MB DIV 17 4 17 30 11 -20 -14 -46 -5 5 0 -18 -13 LAND (KM) 689 614 539 469 399 312 286 310 363 488 674 880 1158 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.6 32.5 31.9 31.1 30.2 29.6 30.1 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.5 72.9 73.4 73.8 74.4 75.1 75.8 76.2 75.4 72.8 68.9 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 3 4 4 4 8 14 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/25/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART