* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 38 38 38 38 31 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 38 38 38 38 31 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 48 47 42 33 23 SHEAR (KT) 17 20 20 11 9 15 15 24 27 52 77 91 96 SHEAR DIR 256 254 253 275 266 280 245 258 253 261 259 260 268 SST (C) 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 93 94 94 96 96 96 97 97 95 96 98 98 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 82 81 82 81 80 82 84 84 87 90 92 92 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.9 -56.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -54.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 45 43 44 45 44 45 42 45 46 42 41 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 12 12 12 10 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 66 64 68 44 50 39 64 47 32 -2 0 8 200 MB DIV 1 19 24 10 -3 3 -3 -7 -12 -17 -22 -13 -10 LAND (KM) 580 506 432 384 336 303 333 433 587 783 1010 1289 1590 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.3 32.6 32.7 32.2 31.2 30.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.0 73.4 73.7 74.0 74.4 74.7 74.7 73.4 71.0 67.6 63.1 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 3 2 4 6 9 13 17 23 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. -2. -10. -21. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -9. -17. -27. -39. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/25/10 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART