* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 27 33 40 55 63 65 64 63 59 60 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 27 33 40 55 63 65 48 34 32 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 36 32 28 30 32 33 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 7 8 15 14 16 12 12 10 13 20 SHEAR DIR 31 329 94 102 118 148 119 142 151 154 177 251 236 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.6 30.8 30.7 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 161 164 169 169 170 162 157 155 148 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.0 -50.9 -49.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 80 76 76 68 69 66 62 58 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 11 13 13 17 16 11 8 8 6 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 89 95 94 85 92 88 92 64 64 70 63 200 MB DIV 73 84 102 122 141 140 130 85 95 60 54 31 -1 LAND (KM) 222 214 213 203 194 155 102 45 -48 -181 31 296 150 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.0 18.5 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.3 89.6 90.0 90.3 91.1 92.0 92.4 92.2 90.7 87.9 84.3 80.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 12 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 35 38 39 40 44 49 58 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 23. 32. 37. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 12. 12. 7. 3. 3. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 20. 35. 43. 45. 44. 43. 39. 40. 38. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/25/10 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART