* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 37 36 35 32 29 29 25 22 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 37 36 35 32 29 29 25 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 38 38 39 42 44 46 45 42 39 35 SHEAR (KT) 23 21 12 9 16 12 25 24 31 31 43 43 44 SHEAR DIR 257 258 270 251 251 281 247 253 274 282 272 262 252 SST (C) 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.7 24.9 24.5 24.0 23.2 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 96 96 96 97 99 100 98 97 92 86 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 82 81 81 82 84 84 84 84 81 75 74 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -54.9 -56.3 -56.8 -56.6 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 4 7 6 5 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 44 47 47 48 47 47 43 48 51 59 45 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 12 12 10 12 9 6 5 4 5 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 65 48 44 44 36 40 52 64 25 -34 -60 200 MB DIV 18 28 16 -1 -6 -9 -31 -1 16 35 -11 -36 -39 LAND (KM) 511 451 391 360 328 326 348 377 422 448 505 648 713 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.5 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.1 31.6 31.1 30.9 31.3 32.0 31.8 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 73.8 74.1 74.4 74.6 75.1 75.6 75.9 75.4 74.1 72.2 70.4 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 4 7 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -11. -15. -18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/26/10 00 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART