* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 32 36 45 55 64 69 63 59 56 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 32 36 45 55 64 69 63 52 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 32 35 40 46 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 7 12 9 19 10 14 17 18 15 12 15 SHEAR DIR 61 113 85 111 171 179 151 123 116 123 124 181 203 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.5 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.8 29.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 162 164 169 169 168 168 169 170 162 153 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -51.0 -51.4 -50.3 -50.1 -51.0 -49.9 -50.7 -49.8 -50.5 -49.5 -50.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 8 6 9 7 9 6 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 76 80 74 69 67 65 65 57 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 13 12 14 16 16 16 12 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 79 88 93 93 97 86 90 101 105 100 93 77 60 200 MB DIV 98 107 104 143 142 114 109 115 96 114 60 14 28 LAND (KM) 212 201 201 193 188 166 176 196 179 120 -7 -145 -150 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 89.1 89.6 90.0 90.5 91.0 92.3 93.4 94.2 94.6 94.4 93.4 92.4 92.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 7 5 4 3 4 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 37 39 39 39 48 49 47 47 52 21 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 13. 23. 32. 38. 42. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 7. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 16. 25. 35. 44. 49. 43. 39. 36. 32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/26/10 00 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART