* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 31 29 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 31 29 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 32 34 34 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 14 19 17 13 32 32 51 56 72 66 53 57 SHEAR DIR 272 261 260 277 270 260 259 262 270 269 284 272 270 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.4 23.8 23.4 22.8 21.8 21.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 103 103 102 101 98 95 94 91 89 91 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 84 86 87 86 86 85 83 83 82 82 87 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -54.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 7 5 5 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 48 49 40 39 46 46 50 49 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 10 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 37 49 48 28 31 28 5 -28 -60 -54 67 200 MB DIV 16 -20 -26 -9 -10 -29 -13 3 -7 -3 -23 7 32 LAND (KM) 341 344 345 373 403 463 531 623 668 742 955 1346 1622 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.5 30.0 29.7 29.6 30.0 30.9 31.6 31.8 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 76.6 76.6 76.5 76.4 76.1 75.3 73.9 72.2 70.0 66.7 61.5 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 1 2 3 3 3 5 7 9 12 18 30 37 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 937 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. -1. -8. -17. -25. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -5. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -22. -31. -38. -41. -45. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/26/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART