* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 45 50 54 55 55 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 45 50 54 55 55 54 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 38 40 42 45 47 49 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 24 22 24 18 22 24 19 23 20 17 15 SHEAR DIR 173 176 168 169 153 161 118 121 119 121 136 130 133 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 170 169 164 161 159 157 156 156 157 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.7 -50.5 -51.5 -50.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 8 9 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 61 66 67 59 63 62 58 59 52 49 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 139 123 122 118 94 86 67 51 24 19 20 18 14 200 MB DIV 82 110 133 125 114 109 48 69 70 67 29 32 43 LAND (KM) 197 172 169 193 217 316 427 482 537 559 587 587 608 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.4 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.6 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.8 96.5 97.2 97.9 99.2 100.6 101.6 102.4 102.9 103.3 103.5 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 44 28 18 31 57 66 74 69 59 55 54 53 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 365 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 25. 29. 30. 30. 29. 29. 29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/26/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART