* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 18 19 15 20 26 40 57 59 75 74 63 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 3 0 1 0 -2 -4 -15 -8 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 272 269 291 283 260 274 278 281 272 267 267 269 274 SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.4 23.5 23.1 22.6 22.2 21.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 98 96 95 94 93 95 94 94 93 93 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 85 84 82 82 81 82 84 85 87 89 89 90 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -55.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 8 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 49 46 46 48 43 42 43 46 46 42 38 42 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 63 41 20 32 25 36 0 1 6 -34 -28 200 MB DIV -11 -23 0 -2 -14 0 -19 3 13 -9 -76 -13 14 LAND (KM) 373 401 431 465 500 569 659 810 983 1294 1583 1844 2042 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.3 30.1 29.9 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.2 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 75.8 75.4 75.0 74.5 73.6 72.2 70.1 67.4 63.3 57.4 50.8 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 7 10 15 22 27 30 31 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 890 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. -2. -11. -22. -30. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -26. -35. -42. -47. -51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL902010 INVEST 05/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY