* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 51 53 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 51 53 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 32 35 38 42 45 SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 29 25 24 21 19 17 20 19 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -1 3 2 0 2 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 159 163 151 139 141 138 130 144 147 149 155 154 153 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 169 169 169 168 167 167 167 167 167 165 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -51.5 -50.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 66 63 60 64 56 55 49 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 122 114 109 106 96 79 74 63 71 53 80 63 200 MB DIV 128 146 143 144 159 90 112 99 88 73 68 65 49 LAND (KM) 228 268 248 240 246 282 306 323 337 352 360 371 381 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.8 95.4 96.0 96.5 97.3 98.0 98.3 98.5 98.7 99.0 99.3 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 47 46 52 63 64 63 61 62 64 66 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 48. 52. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED