* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 38 43 45 49 50 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 38 43 45 49 50 51 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 37 SHEAR (KT) 17 23 24 20 21 21 16 14 13 17 15 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 127 139 139 133 138 140 155 171 148 167 154 162 168 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 166 166 167 168 169 168 167 168 169 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.3 -51.7 -50.4 -50.2 -51.4 -50.4 -51.5 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 8 6 9 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 71 71 69 71 66 66 63 60 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 108 104 98 85 71 59 44 55 40 46 47 52 200 MB DIV 144 148 153 139 118 67 103 80 83 59 78 73 87 LAND (KM) 291 317 343 341 336 357 364 322 239 183 125 99 96 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.7 95.0 95.2 95.3 95.3 95.1 94.5 93.6 92.9 92.7 92.8 93.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 49 50 51 52 49 48 49 49 49 50 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 47. 52. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 20. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY