* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 14 21 24 25 39 73 62 58 72 75 75 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 1 3 -2 -7 -1 -4 -6 0 -5 7 SHEAR DIR 286 276 264 267 272 262 252 245 241 220 216 226 263 SST (C) 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.4 19.4 17.5 16.0 14.6 12.9 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 98 96 96 94 96 100 97 86 79 75 73 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 83 82 86 99 97 84 76 72 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.7 -55.6 -55.6 -56.4 -55.4 -55.3 -54.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 8 6 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 46 42 45 45 52 60 52 51 47 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 30 27 44 10 11 8 -84 -90 -72 -82 -106 200 MB DIV -16 11 0 8 16 -10 36 45 49 78 77 59 24 LAND (KM) 442 472 499 539 584 901 1631 1753 1926 1599 1222 772 454 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.5 33.8 37.9 42.1 46.3 50.1 53.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 74.8 74.3 73.6 72.9 68.4 56.7 41.2 32.9 28.6 24.6 20.9 16.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 13 35 59 53 32 26 24 22 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 3. -8. -18. -27. -33. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -8. -16. -23. -28. -32. -38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL902010 INVEST 05/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY