* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 48 54 57 58 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 48 54 57 58 59 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 36 39 42 45 49 SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 16 15 11 15 7 17 14 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 117 123 132 126 149 148 171 160 148 155 135 167 148 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 166 166 168 168 168 167 168 168 168 168 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -50.7 -50.3 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 7 7 7 8 8 10 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 71 75 72 73 67 69 66 67 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 89 82 76 65 62 47 46 48 46 36 35 28 200 MB DIV 154 129 140 115 60 93 77 90 71 80 65 57 47 LAND (KM) 299 317 335 340 343 329 300 264 232 187 113 76 82 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.7 95.0 95.1 95.1 94.8 94.2 93.6 93.1 92.8 92.5 92.6 93.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 49 49 49 48 48 49 51 50 48 51 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 47. 52. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 36. 37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY