* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 05/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 32 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 32 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 23 25 28 35 55 70 80 62 69 59 59 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 2 -4 0 -7 -12 3 -9 5 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 280 269 274 281 269 263 258 257 246 256 222 245 282 SST (C) 23.8 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.3 23.1 22.6 20.9 19.2 17.7 16.3 14.8 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 96 94 93 93 96 97 97 90 84 80 76 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 83 84 87 92 94 88 81 76 72 69 67 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.1 -56.4 -56.1 -57.0 -58.0 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 43 48 50 47 53 50 58 50 49 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 24 21 34 32 32 -18 -43 -39 -76 -114 -146 -145 200 MB DIV 14 3 11 37 -6 40 42 59 21 57 58 19 1 LAND (KM) 520 578 643 744 850 1237 1573 1720 1719 1870 1587 1127 823 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.3 31.5 34.1 37.6 41.2 44.4 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.8 72.9 71.9 70.5 69.1 64.3 57.4 49.3 41.3 34.0 28.2 23.0 18.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 16 25 32 36 35 31 27 22 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. -1. -15. -27. -36. -40. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -13. -23. -32. -39. -44. -50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 05/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 05/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL902010 INVEST 05/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY