* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 53 55 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 53 55 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 33 35 37 40 43 45 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 11 13 13 21 16 21 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 121 132 126 149 155 156 177 145 157 154 165 169 164 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 167 166 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 166 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -50.7 -50.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -51.4 -50.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 73 71 69 65 66 62 63 62 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 81 75 65 61 54 47 58 54 56 51 42 35 200 MB DIV 131 140 113 60 62 97 82 83 59 95 58 69 39 LAND (KM) 306 313 315 303 291 284 274 236 206 174 157 140 116 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.8 95.0 95.1 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.2 93.8 93.8 93.9 94.2 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 48 48 48 47 47 47 48 49 50 53 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 47. 52. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 22. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY