* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 49 53 54 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 49 53 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 19 18 19 15 14 12 13 14 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 125 123 134 136 132 149 156 161 151 158 180 188 185 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.3 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 168 169 165 158 155 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 8 7 9 7 10 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 69 66 69 60 66 59 61 65 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 8 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 68 72 59 53 57 42 43 51 43 44 39 47 40 200 MB DIV 160 132 75 61 70 57 68 51 51 45 32 51 44 LAND (KM) 298 301 304 292 280 236 176 100 30 -56 -112 -175 -199 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.7 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.7 94.8 94.8 94.8 94.2 93.4 92.7 92.3 92.1 92.1 92.0 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 35 38 41 38 47 50 43 58 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 47. 52. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 29. 31. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED