* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 48 53 56 56 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 48 53 46 35 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 6 10 12 11 10 10 15 16 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 125 152 152 123 133 192 150 180 187 184 184 194 178 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 168 169 168 168 168 168 167 162 162 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.5 -51.3 -50.6 -51.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 6 9 7 9 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 69 70 65 65 66 65 62 66 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 40 35 40 38 27 38 41 42 26 27 14 23 200 MB DIV 139 81 54 57 52 34 68 60 64 26 37 42 37 LAND (KM) 290 274 258 231 204 145 92 45 -16 -64 -90 -106 -99 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.3 94.1 93.2 92.6 92.1 92.2 92.2 92.5 92.6 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 27 35 40 42 48 49 50 12 12 12 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 48. 52. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 23. 28. 31. 31. 32. 34. 36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 6.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY