* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 52 54 54 55 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 52 54 54 55 59 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 40 43 47 51 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 9 11 14 9 16 12 13 12 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 2 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 114 116 112 134 156 149 144 140 150 148 154 134 123 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 168 168 167 167 168 168 168 167 166 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 10 7 10 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 72 73 70 69 71 67 65 63 62 60 57 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 35 44 41 36 39 39 45 33 41 32 52 200 MB DIV 119 72 79 83 56 74 83 81 61 49 39 55 75 LAND (KM) 363 341 320 311 305 267 221 197 180 172 103 56 76 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.2 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.3 95.0 94.4 93.9 93.9 94.2 94.8 95.4 96.1 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 52 48 44 29 40 42 45 46 45 40 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 47. 52. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 27. 29. 29. 30. 34. 37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY