* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 34 39 46 51 52 54 56 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 34 39 46 51 52 54 56 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 38 41 45 49 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 14 11 13 15 12 14 12 10 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 -1 -4 -3 -1 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 116 112 129 157 162 137 154 145 156 148 142 127 129 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 167 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 166 165 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.9 -51.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 9 7 10 7 11 7 11 8 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 70 68 64 63 63 59 59 60 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 7 6 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 46 46 41 46 48 52 45 46 40 48 63 200 MB DIV 72 79 84 58 61 101 91 79 47 47 41 62 77 LAND (KM) 352 320 287 288 291 273 257 214 184 126 100 103 129 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.9 95.6 96.3 97.1 97.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 52 50 48 45 39 42 44 45 40 23 21 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 36. 42. 47. 52. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 21. 26. 27. 29. 31. 35. 37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY