* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 44 47 49 47 45 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 14 10 6 9 7 12 17 21 18 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 1 2 -2 0 -1 0 2 5 7 SHEAR DIR 104 132 154 195 177 191 179 202 233 235 249 260 275 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.6 30.1 29.3 28.7 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 169 169 164 156 150 143 137 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 9 7 10 9 11 10 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 66 66 66 56 59 59 59 55 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 4 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 29 28 28 30 25 37 22 5 -2 -23 -27 200 MB DIV 84 78 58 66 60 52 31 34 41 32 16 -2 -19 LAND (KM) 306 256 206 144 83 -38 -147 -212 -88 -30 -94 -93 -56 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.7 17.9 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.2 93.8 93.3 92.8 91.8 91.3 91.0 90.8 90.4 89.6 88.5 87.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 38 42 47 49 59 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 17. 25. 33. 37. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 17. 19. 17. 15. 11. 10. 8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY