* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 49 51 53 55 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 45 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 14 10 6 7 5 9 7 7 6 16 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -4 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 116 150 186 173 146 166 142 161 121 91 110 116 136 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 169 168 166 164 164 165 167 168 169 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 6 10 8 11 8 12 9 12 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 64 66 64 62 61 58 57 58 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 24 30 27 28 33 28 26 11 27 16 12 26 200 MB DIV 88 61 61 69 71 39 29 18 29 14 27 22 21 LAND (KM) 268 222 176 126 77 6 -65 -90 -96 -101 -87 -89 -20 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 93.8 93.4 93.0 92.5 91.9 91.4 91.3 91.4 91.6 92.0 92.4 93.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 46 47 45 19 57 7 8 9 11 12 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 17. 26. 34. 39. 44. 48. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 28. 31. 34. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED