* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 05/29/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 44 48 51 56 59 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 44 48 51 37 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 37 40 34 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 7 5 6 9 10 12 11 14 18 17 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 -5 -2 -6 0 -1 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 145 170 153 115 125 117 114 119 78 88 120 118 142 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 168 166 165 165 164 165 165 165 168 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 9 8 9 7 10 9 12 10 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 68 64 66 64 70 61 58 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 22 26 25 27 14 6 17 30 29 34 47 200 MB DIV 77 67 70 74 52 43 31 17 27 58 40 26 41 LAND (KM) 254 217 183 148 117 69 39 0 -41 -82 -116 -118 -83 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 93.4 92.9 92.5 92.1 91.7 91.2 91.0 90.9 91.0 91.4 91.9 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 45 44 39 40 42 36 9 7 6 6 9 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 16. 26. 34. 39. 43. 47. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 05/29/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 05/29/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY