* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012010 05/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 46 48 53 57 59 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 46 33 29 27 27 27 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 43 32 28 27 27 27 30 32 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 9 8 10 7 11 16 23 21 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 0 -1 -5 1 0 0 0 2 8 SHEAR DIR 188 156 116 130 131 133 144 107 92 109 119 122 124 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 168 168 164 163 166 168 168 169 170 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 7 9 7 10 8 12 8 12 9 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 69 67 66 65 60 57 55 55 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 30 33 33 28 21 20 36 16 19 34 57 200 MB DIV 79 67 64 51 56 44 32 40 31 20 11 25 50 LAND (KM) 208 172 143 103 63 2 -91 -116 -86 -63 -18 10 89 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 93.0 92.5 92.2 91.8 91.3 90.7 90.9 91.4 91.9 92.5 93.1 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 40 41 39 0 4 4 8 58 0 30 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 36. 40. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 26. 28. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012010 ONE 05/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012010 ONE 05/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY