* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012010 05/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 38 42 46 48 50 53 58 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 3 7 4 8 8 13 8 17 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 5 1 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 206 186 240 136 148 158 181 163 171 169 172 181 N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 166 163 160 159 157 155 155 154 155 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 10 10 8 12 9 12 10 13 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 55 57 55 54 52 50 50 47 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 35 32 26 12 14 6 -1 2 5 23 N/A 200 MB DIV 74 62 61 53 62 16 -7 -11 -2 11 13 3 N/A LAND (KM) -24 -62 -96 -136 -168 -174 -181 -197 -200 -166 -135 -80 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.1 91.8 91.4 91.1 90.7 90.6 90.7 90.8 91.3 91.8 92.7 94.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 2 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 12 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 35. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 28. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012010 AGATHA 05/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012010 AGATHA 05/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED