* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP012010 05/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 24 28 33 35 40 42 47 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 5 6 10 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 4 0 2 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 237 258 229 200 203 208 177 193 177 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 162 159 157 154 151 150 152 153 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 11 9 11 10 12 11 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 55 56 52 54 50 51 45 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 6 6 5 6 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 35 30 22 13 18 -12 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 34 42 65 42 6 -23 -2 12 32 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -86 -125 -163 -205 -182 -177 -186 -172 -145 -144 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.6 91.3 91.0 90.7 90.5 90.4 90.5 91.0 91.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. 1. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -1. 3. 8. 10. 15. 17. 22. 28. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012010 AGATHA 05/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012010 AGATHA 05/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED