* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 06/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 30 32 38 40 39 36 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 30 32 38 40 39 36 31 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 21 19 17 15 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 7 4 10 7 4 4 7 10 15 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 8 9 6 7 8 1 0 0 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 98 98 103 105 134 138 140 223 226 246 256 270 268 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 143 141 140 142 141 139 135 128 124 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 54 55 53 47 46 44 42 42 38 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -53 -50 -49 -44 -38 -27 -22 -10 -12 -4 -18 -20 200 MB DIV 33 37 35 31 31 8 31 28 49 50 39 11 6 LAND (KM) 1655 1676 1701 1739 1782 1868 1917 1957 2012 2088 2193 2276 2317 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.6 120.5 122.2 123.6 124.7 125.8 127.0 128.6 130.0 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 7 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 23 26 25 25 31 36 34 24 14 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 18. 20. 19. 16. 11. 8. 6. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 06/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 06/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY